R.I.P. Tim Russert

Presidential Election - BOLD Predictions

Bold predictions from a bold man. 

Bold prediction #1:
Obama picks John Edwards to be his running mate - John Edwards has everything Obama lacks to win the presidency.  He's southern, populist, and white.  What about Hillary Clinton?  She's southern, populist, white, AND a woman.  True, but she made the cardinal mistake of politics:  asking to be on the ticket.  Hillary should have played hard to get. Real prom queens don't ask to go to the ball.   John Edwards is the real prom queen.

Bold prediction #2:
McCain picks Mike Huckabee to be his running mate - The only thing older than a John McCain is old joke is John McCain.  John McCain is no Bob Dole, but he needs to do two things: 

1. Energize the evangelical right 
   
2. Not look like a raving lunatic

... which is a hard thing to do, but Mike Huckabee seems to pull it off. 

Bold prediction #3:
Latin voters are the most important demographic in the election - Millions of spanish speaking voters will have to decide "who do I hate more.  The young black guy, or the old white guy"?  Neither candidate really speaks to the Latin voter, which is significant because they may swing electorate heavy states such as Florida, New Jersey, and Colorado.  Expect Obama and McCain to be making regular appearances on Telemundo's "Sabado Gigante".  Latin voters will split more or less evenly between the two candidates.

Bold prediction #4:
Obama wins in a landslide - Democratic turnout will be the highest in history fueled by a surge in new and black voters.  Republican turnout will be at a 20 year low.  "Values"-based Republican voters will support McCain but come election day, they will not show up to vote.  Obama takes the coastal states, while McCain struggles to hold leads in the midwest.  McCain takes Florida and Ohio by a nose but Obama takes Pennsylvania, Michigan, and to everyone's surprise Texas!  Smaller midwestern states are split 70-30 to McCain, but Obama's dominance in the electorate heavy states give him a resounding victory.

BOLD!!!!!  Goddamnit!!  I should sell steak sauce!

Tokyo and Beijing and the Search for 'Normalcy'

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/31/world/asia/31japan.html?ex=1369972800&en=734c0ecf23240583&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Interesting article in today's WSJ and NYTimes today.  China called upon Japan to airlift blankets and tents to earthquake riddled Sichuan provence. 

Tokyo's bright idea - "Let's airlift them with a bunch of Japanese military planes!"
Beijing actually acquiesced until today, when they went "Dude!  Did you forget about WWII?"

So, long story short - Japan is now going to send aid using chartered civilian aircrafts instead.  An interesting situation because there are two ways you can look at it: 

1. The Japanese are insensitive for wanting to help China out using a bunch of airplanes reminiscent of the ones that it used against them 70 years ago. 
2. The Chinese are stubborn for holding a 70 year grudge considering the magnitude of the situation and Japan's good intentions

both views are correct and it just goes to show that Beijing and Tokyo still have a long way to go before there's a sense of 'normalcy' between the two capitals.  Giving aid to a earthquake torn region should not be a diplomatic exercise the history of which spans a the great part of the 20th century.  Sadly, as the diplomats argue the refugees of Sichuan suffer.

Life Update: Hong Kong, Manila, Tokyo, Shanghai

The good thing about consulting is that you're never in one place and you live out of a hotel room.  The bad thing about consulting is that you're never in one place and you live out of a hotel room. I got to say though, it's been more good than bad.   I've been in four cities these past four weeks.  I work out of an office in Manila during the week and weekends I'm free to roam.  Each time I think there's no surprises left in life, the universe proves me wrong. 

Some reflections, sorted by city:

Hong Kong

If you think Chinatown in New York is great, check out Hong Kong!!!  Best "beef flied lice" ever!!!!  Seriously though, I've never had a bad meal in HK and dim sum is worth the price of admission.  HK is a banker town and if you hang with expats you find yourself talking finance in the night club.  Girls seem to like it though, which is why when they ask me what I do for a living I tell them "bank teller".  Then, they usually go away - you know - because they're so impressed.

Manila

You spell Filipino with an 'F' when you talk about the people.  You spell Philippine with a 'Ph' when you talk about the country.  It's an arbitrary western convention indicative of a country whose history is riddled with arbitrary western influence.  Sometimes, like when I see Filipinos party I think "Spanish" and other times like when I go to the mall I think "American" and other times I think "WHAAA"?  I read in a book that the Filipinos are disarmingly western but Asian at their core.  This gave me a whole new understanding of the Filipinos I've known over the years. I'm enjoying myself working in this city and I think it's because people here understand my what I'm all about.  In Japan, they identify me as "American".  In America it's "Japanese dash American" (Japanese-American).  In the Philippines, however I'm "Japanese slash American" (Japanese/American) and I love that. 

Tokyo

It's good to be in my second home.  Beautiful weather to walk around.  I'm just sad however to have missed the cherry blossoms.  Highlight of the weekend.  I saw a jogger near my hotel in Ebisu.  From the waist down he looked like a regular jogger with running sneakers and mesh shorts.  From the waist up however, dude was wearing a puffy black jacket and had his hair done up like one of those guys from L'arc en ciel. 



Run Forrest.  Run.

Shanghai

As of April Japanese passport holders can enter China for 15 days without a visa.  As a Japanese citizen it's not my place to question why I am allowed effortless entry into mainland China while millions upon millions of foreign born Chinese need to wait in long-forming lines to obtain a visa.  It is my duty however to rub it in.  "IN YO' FACE ABC"!!!!!  But I digress....  As my Shanghainese friend Xin pointed out, it's a sign of diplomacy and friendship - don't push it Jap boy.  I can't help it though.  The irony!!!!  Excuse me, I need to go buy a trucker hat with a catch phrase.

I actually didn't get much of an opportunity to check out Shanghai because mostly I was working for the weekend, but I did enjoy myself immensely there.  I hung out in the expat crowd.  The highlight of the weekend came when I went to a bar aptly named "Abbey Road" that featured - and I am not making this up - a 50's era costumed Beatles cover-band made of Japanese musicians with mod haircuts.  Suffice to say as a hardcore Beatles fan also Japanese with a neo-mod haircut, my mind was blown.

What strikes you about Shanghai is how new everything is.  All the things you've heard about Shanghai are true.  The buildings are futuristic and you get the sense of a new age.  But with newness comes a price.  Tall skyscrapers and concrete jungles make a place feel cold and unfriendly - a fact the Shanghainese are starting to realize.  My expat friends tell me there are less slash and build operations going on.  More and more, people are refurbishing old homes and coming to grips with what they are losing to modernization. 

Japanese Population Decline 4 - Immigration

Japanese people are not stupid.  They know the crippling effect that population decline will have on their domestic economy.  They know that in the face of a globalized economy, rapidly aging population, and loss of innovation they need to open their doors to a wave of immigrants.  They know the United States and Western Europe are cherry-picking the best global talent leaving Japan more and more uncompetitive. 

They know all that but they're comfortable, they're happy, and that's exactly the problem. 

From my experience, the Japanese-as-racist perception of the outside world is exaggerated.  The Japanese are insular but that is a very different thing.  The thing that I would say makes Japanese people unique is their deep curiosity for other cultures.  Perhaps it is no coincidence but I perceive the same from the English.  Both are island nations that have a clear idea where the boundaries of their own civilization end.  And so, Japanese and Brits have a long history of importing knowledge from other cultures and exporting it as its own.  Case in point, the British and the Japanese have their tea but it's India and China that provided the leaves.

What can be done about it?

There is every reason to believe that Japan could accommodate, adapt, and incorporate a large influx of foreign-born talent into their economy.  Although easy to say, politically it's next to impossible.  Such broad sweeping change is unlikely in a political system in Japan that is beholden to vested interests such as construction, agriculture, and shipping which would be adversely effected by such policies.  The Japanese people need a sense of urgency, but their contentment with the way things are precludes action. 

Japan has had other periods of insularity of course.  For 200 years they had been a dormant feudal society with sparse trading going on with the Portuguese.  Commodore Perry's black ships changed all that in 1853.  An American armed with engines and guns shamed the Japanese who battled with horses and bows.  After that Japan modernized.  It became the superpower everyone came to know in World War II.  After 1853 nothing has been the same. 

For better, or worse Japan needs the black ships once again.  This concludes my series on Japanese population decline.  Hope people liked it!

Life Update - Manila edition

Engine Engine #9
On the New York Transit Line
If My Train Goes Off the Track
Pick it Up!  Pick it Up!  Pick it Up!

Good times in the Philippines :)

I am an art "collector"

I just bought a Massimo Vignelli print for $300.  As you can see, it's a minamalist version of the New York City Subway Map.  Mr. Vignelli is famous as the designer of the original 1972 NYC map that pioneered the color-coded subway lines used in New York - subsequently imitated by transportation authorities all over the world. 



It's a limited edition - only 500 exist and it is signed by Massimo Vignelli himself.  Proceeds benefit the Green Worker Corporative. 

For $300 am I?

a) Artsy
b) Crazy
c) Stupid

Japanese Population Decline 3 - Unbought Christmas Cake

There is a saying in Japan that translates to "unbought Christmas cake".  In Japan it is custom for couples to eat a special and elaborate Christmas-themed cake.  Every year bakery chefs go to great lengths to stock the most popular and sublime cakes for this special time of year.  It is a labor of love.  Tragically, cakes don't last very long and since they're made especially for Christmas any still left on the 26th are either thrown away or sold at a deep discount.

"Unbought Christmas cake".  This is what you are called if you are an unmarried woman at 26.

It's not a term used with regularity in Japan.  Also, it's not even close to the norm.  The average age for a woman to get married is currently 27 and rising.  Still, I tell my Christmas cake story because it's the kind of term used among women in Japan, the kind of term that is jokingly used among friends when no one is looking, the kind of term you find buried within the editorial sections of trashy fashion magazines. 

Feminism is an odd creature in Japan.  Girls have more or less equal educational opportunity as boys throughout high school and indeed performance is decidedly par.  It's college where you see significant drop-offs. Female enrollment at Tokyo University is about 19%.  Compare that to Harvard, which is at 49%.  The imbalance of highly educated men vs. highly educated women permeates through to the workforce.  While it is not an uncommon sight, it is rare to see highly skilled, highly driven women at the top levels of the workforce.

To be sure, the Japanese workplace is a hostile place for women.  Sexual harassment, demeaning gender attitudes, and prohibitively inflexible maternity leave policies all contribute to this.  However, my take on the situation is that it isn't the workplace that's disenfranchised with women, its women who are disenfranchised with the workplace.  The Japanese workforce NEEDS women.  It is diminishing and graying at a rate unheard of in modern first world history.  Multi-national firms with women-friendly policies are reaping the benefits.  Less progressive firms are finding they need to adjust to stay competitive.  Market forces are changing attitudes and creating opportunities for women willing to take on the responsibility. 

However many women are not.  The numbers bear this out.  Japan actually slipped 11 ranks to 91st in The Economist's survey of gender equality falling behind manufacturing-based economies such as Cuba and Vietnam.  I can't say I blame Japanese women.  I used to be a salary-man in Japan.  It's hell.  You work late.  You commute hours on a sweaty, crowded train.  You're hardly if ever appreciated.  Given the choice, a life of stay-at-home wife doesn't sound bad. In an attempt not to sound like a complete sexist jerk, not all women in Japan feel this way - but a lot do. 

What does this have to do with Japanese population decline?

While there is no shortage of Japanese couples in Japan, there is an abundance of sexless couples.  It is a fact of life that lots of people get married and then are unhappy with that marriage.  Things change.  I'm not suggesting that this is anything new.  Broken marriages have existed since the dawn of time.  What is new however is the age of what I'd like to call "Incomplete Feminism".  A good number of women in Japan are choosing not to fulfill their filial duty and rightly so.  It's their uterus; they should do with it what they want. 

The big gap between Japan and their western counterparts is divorce.  While it may be controversial, my belief is that a certain percentage of marriages that end in divorce is a good thing.  Marriages, like jobs can be either productive or unproductive.  Macroeconomists will tell you that a certain level of unemployment is a good thing because an unemployed worker isn't always someone who's been laid off.  It might be that he's just looking for a job where he or she can be more productive.  I hypothesize that a healthy divorce rate is akin to a healthy unemployment rate.  It allows for unproductive marriages to make way for productive ones.

Japan's divorce rate is exceedingly low.  Less than 1% of new marriages in Japan end in divorce.  This is an astonishing rate.  #1 Sweden is at 54%.  The U.S. is at 45%.  Japan's rate is even less than India's.  While, I don't argue that this is the only factor in Japan's population decline, I do argue that it is a major indicator of so-called sexless marriages and which contributes heavily to population decline. 

What can be done about it?

A career-oriented woman with a stable job in an unhappy marriage can divorce the bum she's married to and start fresh.  She can choose to have kids with a man who loves and respects her.  If not, she can opt to go it alone.  You'd think then that being a career-oriented woman in Japan is incredibly attractive.  You would not get this idea if you read JJ, ViVi, CamCam or myriad of other Japanese fashion magazines.  The attitudes of Japanese men need to change before women become common in the workplace. However, Japanese women also need to take a hard look at themselves and shoulder a lot of the blame.  Women calling each other "Unbought Christmas Cake" imply that the only path toward happiness in life is to find a rich handsome husband, marry, and live happily ever after.  Japanese women should have more confidence in themselves, and if they're unhappy with their boyfriend or husband they should cut and run.  That's the only way Japanese women will change.  Hell, that's the only way Japanese men will change too.  

Take it from someone who knows ;)

Are the Torch Relay Protests Good for Tibet?

Olympic torch protests in Paris, San Francisco, and now New Delhi are getting wide media attention and are captivating the world's attention.  However the question that interests me is not whether Tibet should be its own country.  My own political convictions aside, I think the answer depends on who you ask.  Rather, the question people should be asking is - are the torch relay protests helping or hurting the cause of Tibetan independence?

I believe the protests are hurting the Tibetan cause.  The struggle for Tibet is one that ongoing for a half century and has included the suppression of numerous uprisings and has involved significant bloodshed on both sides.  In this context the worldwide protests that have been occurring in recent weeks in response to the violence seen in Tibet last month seem nothing less than a gross politicizing of the Olympic games.  If so many foreigners felt this strongly about Tibet, where were these protests last year when China completed it's Lhasa express railroad?  In fact, where were they in the '50s when they invaded Tibet in the first place?  Clearly, foreign protesters are using the Olympic torch as a rallying cry to express their hostility on the topic of Tibet and other pent up frustrations. 

Why is this bad for Tibetan independence? 

The reason, according to the Chinese government is the Olympics should not be used as a forum to advance a political agenda.  I think that it goes much deeper than that. One must try to understand the Chinese perspective.  I do not think that westerners realize how much importance and emotion the average Chinese person has invested into these Olympics.  Much like the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, the Chinese have been anticipating the 2008 Olympic games as a global showcase of how far they've advanced as a prosperous competitive free market economy. A Chinese friend of mine once described the Beijing Olympics as a the nation's "Coming Out Party".  Since 2001 the Olympics have been a part of the national dialogue and a great source of pride for the people.  Hence for many Chinese, a protest against the Olympic torch is construed not only as a protest against it's Tibet policy but a protest against the greatness of China itself. 

The hope of the protesters (I assume) is that by drumming enough popular support they can effectively negotiate terms with the government of China.  This is ridiculous.  If protestors really wanted to see change they should be using different means to achieve their goal and/or direct their anger at someone else.  China is not France.  It is not a country that has more transportation stoppages due to strike than it has due to bad weather.  Especially on these matters the Chinese government is a straight communism and it does not care whether someone protests against them or not - especially when it's a bunch of hippies off in some other country.

By using the Olympic torch relay as a platform for their protests the Chinese government has no choice to become even more defensive and maintain an even harder line with it's position on Tibet.  Anything else would constitute a massive loss in face.  The demonstrations, although well intentioned, are making the prospect of a free and independent Tibet far more unlikely. 

------------

Also, I realize I am detracting from my series on Japanese Population decline.  I apologize for this but I thought that I should write about this while it is topical.
 

Japanese Population Decline 2 - the vicious cycle

Tokyo University is Japan's Harvard.  Kyoto University, Princeton.  Acceptance into either pretty much guarantees you a spot in the country's elite.  Top government, banking, consulting, and scientific posts are filled with To-dai and Kyo-dai graduates.  However there is a big difference in Japan.  Harvard and Princeton are private universities.  Tokyo and Kyoto are public - meaning state subsidized and affordable.

To be sure many excellent private universities exist in Japan such as Waseda and Keio.  However, educational prestige in Japan is decidedly connected to public institutions.  Many Japanese carry around the notion that private universities can be "bought" into.  For children, this means that the quality of education you recieve has little to do with what your parents can afford but how much effort you put into it.  The net result is a Japan that is far more egalitarian than the United States.  Since World War II, Japan has been dominated by a huge middle class.  As we shall discuss, this is changing.

For much of Japan's post-war history the crucial college entrance examination has been the great equilizer in its society.  Students from impoverished backgrounds have climbed the socio-economic ladder with a mix of talent and hard work.  Conversely there are socio-economic drop-offs.  Tales of rich "Ronin" children who fail to meet expectations often spend years in limbo to prepare themselves for next year's examination. 

What does this have to do with population decline?  One word:  'Jyuku'. 

The Japan I have just described is all theory.  The reality in Japan today is that despite public university's low tuition, attendance is dominiated by children coming from rich families.  Research indicates that over half of Tokyo University Students attended private high school and almost all attended 'jyuku' - special afterschool cram sessions designed specifically to "crack" the test.  Think Kaplan on steroids. 

Convetional wisdom in Japan says that you have to send your child to expensive 'jyuku' and privates school for him/her to succeed in life.  If you are rich Japanese couple and you want your kid to have the advantages you enjoyed, it's not a luxury, it's a necessity.  Costs for such services are getting prohibatively expensive in Japan and as a result - affluent parents are having fewer and fewer children.

The same is not true of Japan's less educated, less afluent class.  While low by world-wide standards they are having children in larger numbers.  What demographers in Japan are seeing is - as a result of this reproductive asysmetry - a shift betwen Japan's "haves" and "have nots".  The population of "haves" - defined as upper-middle and upper - in Japanese society is shrinking while "have nots" - lower-middle and lower - is steadily growing.  The net result of this shift is that national wealth is more unevenly distributed than at any time post-WWII.  Japan's middle-class mountain is transforming into twin peaks.

In an era of absolute population decline competition for Tokyo and Kyoto university is at an all time high.  While the story of a poor man becoming rich is uplifting and happy, the story of a rich man becoming poor is depressing and sad.  While intelligence, work ethic and memory are randomly assigned by the genetic lottery, how much money your parents have is not.  Say you have a stupid son.  While it is not possible to "buy" him a path into a top national university in Japan, you can however throw a lot of money at the problem and increasingly that is what a lot of affluent parents are doing.

This has become a vicious cycle in Japan.

1. Population decline in Japan is not distributed evenly throughout Japan's social class. 
2. This shift away from Japan's egalitarian makeup increases the importance of expensive after-school classes and enrollment in private institutions. 
3. Wealthy parents choose to have less children because of the high costs to maintain social standing
   

Although Japan's education system is excellent the process by which academic institutions select their student body badly needs revising.  The 'one-shot' entrance examination which has long served Japan is considered by most educators to be out-dated and ineffective. Japan must realize the economic reality that a generation of 'Jyuku'-educated youth are having on the nation.  The notion of the Japanese toward their university system is wrong.  It is possible more than every before to "buy" your child's position in society.  What we must realize is that the costs aren't just bad for parents, they are bad for Japan as well.

Music by Marco Benevento from the album Invisible Baby